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2024-12-14 04:51:50

2. The CPI of the United States in November was in line with expectations, and the interest rate cut was stable!1. Individual pension funds will be expanded to broad-based index products.According to the market style rotation in the first half of the year, the non-mainstream styles are short-lived rotation. In the first half of the year, the mainstream dividend was high, and it was a new low after the rapid rotation of other industries. Now, the same high dividend is not cost-effective. After the rapid rotation, the market opportunity will still be the mainstream theme, low price and small ticket style. This is the decision of incremental funds, and incremental funds will definitely not engage in high-ranking institutions and the direction of the national team's heavy position.


Therefore, in the near future, everyone should continue to avoid the big ticket of institutional+foreign heavy positions and let them play by themselves. Let's make a small U-turn. Now there are enough market themes. Just focus on one or two core optimistic directions (technology and consumption), and don't switch frequently. Grasp the rhythm and the probability of making money is still very high.In a bull market, the market is full of liquidity and investors have a high risk appetite, and the stock price is generally higher than the intrinsic value. In a bear market, expectations are pessimistic and liquidity is exhausted, and the stock price is generally lower than the intrinsic value. Although the stock price will deviate from the intrinsic value most of the time, the stock price is infinitely close to the intrinsic value for a long time.In the past two months, domestic capital has flowed out by more than 1.5 trillion yuan. There are mainly three types of funds flowing out. First, some new investors who came in in October stopped playing. The second is that institutional funds run away, and the third is the reduction of industrial capital+size. In a word, institutions must be one of the forces of market smashing. This round of market is not that institutions don't believe in bull market, but that people don't believe in institutions. If they can't get money, they naturally have no market pricing power.


Take the monthly index in the above figure as an example to illustrate:Before September, the market has always been a high dividend for defense and hedging, and the market is specially estimated. The incremental fund is the national team; Since the end of September, the market has been the mainstream theme, with low price and small ticket style. The incremental funds are new investors entering the market and old investors recharging.According to the market style rotation in the first half of the year, the non-mainstream styles are short-lived rotation. In the first half of the year, the mainstream dividend was high, and it was a new low after the rapid rotation of other industries. Now, the same high dividend is not cost-effective. After the rapid rotation, the market opportunity will still be the mainstream theme, low price and small ticket style. This is the decision of incremental funds, and incremental funds will definitely not engage in high-ranking institutions and the direction of the national team's heavy position.

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